New Chapter or Continued Stagnation? German Chancellor Merz Visits Warsaw
Friedrich Merz traveled to Warsaw on Wednesday, just one day after taking office as Germany’s chancellor. This symbolic gesture was intended to signal a new phase in Polish-German relations.
Despite their proximity and very close cooperation, including in economic matters, Polish-German relations during the rule of the Law and Justice (PiS) party and its coalition partners (2015-2019, 2019-2023), as well as the first half of the term of Civic Coalition (KO) and its partners (2023-), have been cold.
PiS has traditionally been pro-American and skeptical of Germany.
The current government led by Donald Tusk, on the other hand, has not seen eye to eye with Olaf Scholz’s SPD. Points of contention included historical remembrance policy, cooperation with Russia, aid for Ukraine, migration policy, and many other issues. Social sentiment and mutual misconceptions among the Polish and German elites did not help the relationship either.
Yet the existing differences between the two countries as well as many unanswered questions should not cast doubt on the prospect of closer Polish-German ties.
In Poland, attitudes toward Germany were, until recently, highly polarized – ranging from near-phobic resentment to blind admiration. The German public, in turn, often perceived Poland’s politics as lacking assertiveness, and many believed that Donald Tusk’s return to power would ensure a smooth resumption of bilateral cooperation.
The best illustration of the state of relations was the Polish-German intergovernmental consultations held in Warsaw in the summer of 2024. The atmosphere was cold, and no concrete decisions had been taken.
A telling anecdote circulated in Warsaw: When asked about helping to apprehend those responsible for the sabotage of Nord Stream 2, Radosław Sikorski, Polish FM, reportedly told members of Scholz’s cabinet that Poland was more likely to award them medals than help capture them.
Friedrich Merz in Warsaw
On his first day in office, the newly elected Chancellor embarked on two foreign visits. The second of these took place in Warsaw and was intended to signal a fresh start in bilateral relations. But did it really turn out that way? The agenda of the meeting included, among other topics, the development of railway infrastructure, security policy, the memory of World War II, and more.
According to Kyiv Post’s sources in the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, talks on a joint migration policy had been ongoing for some time. Berlin and Warsaw were also expected to cooperate closely within the EU.
However, this turned out to be a contentious issue, which became apparent during the leaders’ press conference. Despite being within the Schengen Area, German controls remain in place at the Polish-German border, and German authorities continue to return illegal migrants to Poland. This issue has persisted for many months and has gained attention in the German media.
Kyiv Post sources also claim that the Polish side wanted to send a firm message to its German partners that Warsaw would no longer pursue the less assertive policy seen during the previous Tusk and Merkel governments. Former Chancellor Merkel hails from the CDU, the same political party as Friedrich Merz, with whom Donald Tusk traditionally maintains close ties.
It should also be noted that Merz has to contend with the far-right, populist AfD, which is currently enjoying the highest level of support among the German public in recent polls.
Historical policy
The German Chancellor addressed the sensitive issue of World War II remembrance in Poland. In addition to offering apologies and clearly acknowledging the devastation caused by German aggression and occupation in 1939, he also announced plans to erect a temporary monument in Berlin to honor Polish victims of World War II. Poles are the only major victim group of Nazi Germany that, despite the passage of decades, still lack such a memorial. The temporary nature of the planned monument has also stirred controversy in Poland.
Another issue resonating in Polish domestic politics that relates to World War II is the question of war reparations, which was raised by the previous PiS government. Poland has not received compensation for the destruction inflicted by Germany during the war. During the joint press conference with Tusk, Merz stated that the topic of reparations is closed. In Poland, historical and dignity-based policies hold a special status – not only on a symbolic level, but also as a core objective of foreign policy.
Chancellor Merz’s visit to Warsaw was largely ceremonial, but the symbolism is significant – he came to Warsaw on his very first day in office. However, he visited Paris first.
The order of visits signals which direction is more important, though it is not meant as a slight toward Poland. It could also indicate a political will to reactivate the Weimar Triangle format (ministers from the involved countries participate in joint meetings with the Nordic-Baltic Eight and the UK; Friedrich Merz visited France, and Donald Tusk visit is scheduled for Friday). Tusk would like the Weimar Triangle to become a guiding force for the EU. This would elevate both Poland’s and the Prime Minister’s stature.
Tusk has also sought to strengthen his political position by leveraging political crises in France and Germany.
Despite a few points of tension, a rapprochement between Berlin and Warsaw appears likely. On the issue of continued support for Ukraine, both capitals speak with one voice – such support is unquestionable.
Source: Michał Kujawski