Putin Remains Confident of ‘Ultimate Victory’ in Ukraine, US Intelligence Says
Russian President Vladimir Putin “remains confident” he will secure an “ultimate victory” in Ukraine despite Moscow’s participation in ongoing peace negotiations, according to a newly released report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
Prepared for the US House of Representatives, the assessment says Putin views the war as an “existential struggle against the West” and an effort to restore the prestige and global influence that he believes Russia lost when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
The report, based on intelligence available as of May 11, 2025, states that despite Moscow engaging in US-brokered peace talks, “Putin almost certainly is committed to victory in Ukraine,” and that his strategic goals have remained “mostly unchanged” since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
This aligns with concerns in Kyiv that Russia may be using the peace process to buy time and seize more Ukrainian territory, aiming to impose its preferred terms in any future negotiated settlement.
On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump privately told European leaders that Putin has no intention of ending the war, believing he is on a winning path.
The remarks reportedly came during a call on Monday with key European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Washington, which has held separate talks with Russia and Ukraine since February, has recently expressed doubts about the possibility of reaching a quick resolution to the conflict, now in its third year.
Avoiding confrontation with NATO
The report outlines Putin’s main demands as a permanent ban on Ukraine joining NATO and the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian military forces from the eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
It adds that “Putin is prepared to use military force at least through 2025” to achieve these objectives.
The report says Moscow is likely to avoid direct confrontation with NATO due to its depleted military strength. It adds that since 2022, Russia has lost over 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks. Losses also include nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters, and more than 10 naval vessels.
US estimates place Russian military casualties above 700,000.
‘Asymmetric’ warfare
As a result of the war, “Russia’s capabilities to deter, fight, or militarily compete with NATO are likely to be degraded for at least the next three years,” the report says.
However, while it may lack the ability to take on NATO head on, the DIA warns that “Moscow remains fully capable of employing asymmetric capabilities against the United States and allies, including cyber and information campaigns.”
It adds that Russia has also intensified its efforts to destabilize Europe, aiming “to undermine Western cohesion and support to Ukraine.”
Earlier, a report by the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) found that Russia attempted to infiltrate surveillance systems in European states, including Poland, as part of a sweeping cyber campaign aimed at disrupting Western aid supplies to Ukraine.
The DIA says that Putin is prepared to pursue “a strategy of attrition through at least the end of the year,” believing that Russia can outlast both Ukraine’s resources and Western resolve.
Source: Tvp World