Ukraine’s Spiderweb Traps Putin’s Myth
The destruction by Ukraine of at least 40 of Russia’s best strategic bombers is of immense significance in several respects. And, it may be the beginning of the end of the full-scale war raging now for more than three years.
First, the technological innovation and audacity of Ukraine’s attack is unparalleled in warfare’s history. Operation Spiderweb, directly managed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, took place nearly simultaneously at five separate air bases, one more than 4,000 kilometres (2,500 miles) inside Russia, and featured low-cost, handheld drones smuggled by vehicles into the vast Eurasian country. It marks a major milestone in the transformation of the war – and indeed warfare itself – to primarily drone-based combat.
With less manpower, it perfectly suits Ukraine to use $500 drones to destroy $150 million aircraft; the “battlefield of drones” is Ukraine’s preferred place to fight as it manufactures 4.5 million drones this year.
Given all wars are ultimately about their cost/benefit to combatants, the attack represents a huge cost to Putin’s Russia. The least substantial part of this cost is the $7 billion total cost of the destroyed aircraft. What is costlier to Moscow is strategic – and Zelensky knows it. He has struck Putin where it most hurts – his pride and prejudices.
Just as one-third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet has been eliminated, so has the Kremlin’s propaganda narrative that it is winning the war. That claim has no credibility when one compares this historic loss with the tiny gains that Russia has been gruesomely grinding out in eastern Ukraine.
Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than it did three years ago, and Operation Spiderweb shows that Putin’s military cannot even control its own land and airspace, much less defeat a relentlessly resistant Ukraine.
This speaks to a further cost at the level of massacred myth. For his 20-plus year tenure, and particularly during his invasion of his smaller, democratic neighbor, Putin has promoted Russia as a global power fulfilling a neo-imperial destiny. Much of Putin’s support among everyday Russians is based on this “strong country and strong man” positioning.
The Ukrainians’ raid fully debunks Putin’s personal and national mythology. It shows how exposed and weak he and his regime are in reality. As a result, combined with an economy collapsing as fast as oil prices plummet, it could lead to increased disquiet, starting with Russia’s oligarchs, about the country’s future. If the country’s elite, interested only in wealth, act against him, Putin is done.
However, where the cost is highest to Russia is a very practical one. Strategic bombers which launch inter-continental nuclear missiles are a main way that a country projects its power. They literally give it global reach. Russia’s global reach has now been massively curtailed; it is now fully vulnerable to any threats from the United States or China. It’s one thing to worry about beating Ukraine; it’s another level to be totally exposed to competing superpowers.
President Trump accused Zelensky of “not holding any cards.” Operation Spiderweb, which Ukraine didn’t consult the US about, might be the Ukrainian President’s ace in the hole. By showing he can wipe out Russia’s air fleet, he now has leverage for a negotiated settlement closer to Ukraine’s terms. That starts with an unconditional ceasefire and the repatriation of 20,000 kidnapped children. Let that be the reward for this extraordinary feat of arms.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Source: Pete Shmigel