4-Stage Process to Stop Russo-Ukrainian War
It came as no surprise that two rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey did not succeed in bringing the two warring countries nearer to any sort of ceasefire. Neither side showed much inclination of flexibility with both basically adhering to their utmost demands. Ukraine again insisted on a ceasefire before entering into peace negotiations.
The Russian side is adamant about first resolving the principal causes of the conflict (a conflict they started with an unprovoked invasion of their neighbor) prior to agreeing to any ceasefire. In the meantime, the fighting continues to escalate with extremely fierce Russian drone and missile attacks, notably on civilian targets, while Ukraine counteracts with disruptive attacks on infrastructure deep inside Russia.
Despite this ongoing destruction, hope prevails.
US President Donald Trump has properly emphasized the requisites for peace (at least before involving himself in the Iran-Israel war), in spite of tremendously underestimating the difficulties involved in achieving his objective. While there is a huge gap between the demands of the two adversaries, there is a logical avenue forward to achieve a ceasefire and a lasting settlement.
The initial step is to do away with public displays, like in Turkey, and proceed with confidential negotiations in a bound and determined manner. The diplomatic compromises required to laboriously reach an agreement can only be done privately. This does not preclude discussions open to the public spotlight. Talks in Turkey produced a worthwhile consensus on prisoner exchanges, and can also distract the media from seeking out coverage of private diplomatic efforts.
Next, any meaningful talks have to be entrenched in serious dialogue involving European security and strategic questions about stability. Russia’s conflict with the West extends beyond its war with Ukraine. Major progress in ending the war will not be possible without also including discussions on these broader issues.
Varying country frameworks will be needed to manage the discrete parts of these issues. There can be no talks of Europe’s security issues without Europe’s participation. Russia and the United States would be directly engaged in stability discussions, while Russia and Ukraine would be the principal parties on more specific issues like prisoner exchanges.
Thirdly, following up from the above point, the Trump administration must be actively participating in diplomatic efforts. American guidance will be needed to integrate talks on the war, European security, and strategic stability because the US is a crucial contributor on all these issues.
Possessing leverage over Russia and Ukraine, Washington is to a large degree in control of a lasting ceasefire and future peace. Kyiv is in dire need of continued material assistance and moral support. Moscow needs normalized relations with the world’s most powerful country to validate its own status as a global power. The US and Russia are the only countries that can independently alter terms of European security. Also, Russia, as one of two nuclear superpowers, can determine the outlines of strategic stability.
Regarding the war, America’s priority task is to establish a working structural agreement, a set of rules and boundaries for a ceasefire and peace settlement that can bridge the Russian and Ukrainian positions. The two big challenges will be security guarantees for both nations and addressing the disputed territories.
Whereas the United States has been the key guarantor of European security since World War II, only US security assuredness can coordinate both sides to a resolution of the territorial dispute that will be less of what each side is demanding.
Finally, Washington has to continue fully supporting Ukraine, most importantly with regard to military aid. Vladimir Putin must be convinced that he will not win this conflict on the frontlines and Ukraine will not surrender. Putin must buy in to a negotiated agreement in which both sides compromise on their ultimate goals in favor of security needs. A new supplemental aid package for Ukraine would definitively create an environment for progressive negotiations, no matter how vehemently Moscow would denounce such a measure publicly.
If the above four stage process is followed, the road to eventual peace will still be long and difficult. Reaching the required compromises will be hard. Any settlement will not provide the ethical certainty or apparent victory that Europe and Ukraine seek. It is very possible that the aggressor nation will retain some of its ill-gotten land, Putin will not answer for his lengthy list of war crimes, and Russia will not compensate Ukraine fully for the devastating damage it has inflicted.
The United States, its European allies and Ukraine will be forced to somehow coexist with Russia as world peace would take center stage.
True justice will need to be pursued gradually, over time, as was done during the Cold War. In the interim, many lives will be saved and much physical destruction prevented.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Source: Ihor N. Stelmach