ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2025
The Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, one of many demands the Kremlin has made of the US, Ukraine, and Ukraine’s other supporters.
The suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine will damage Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks against military and civilian targets.
The suspension of all US intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
The Trump administration has been applying considerable pressure on Ukraine, whose leaders continue to offer concessions and publicly declare their interest in achieving a lasting end to the war. These Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.
Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
Russian officials continue inaccurately to place the blame on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — and not Russian President Vladimir Putin — for the lack of meaningful peace negotiations.
Kremlin officials continue to use business incentives to make further demands of the United States and to push the United States to de facto recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Over 50,000 Russian servicemembers are reportedly listed as having abandoned their units and are absent without leave (AWOL) between February 2022 and mid-December 2024.
Source: ISW