IEA sees global oil market surplus for 2025

If OPEC+ extends the unwinding of output cuts beyond April without reining in supply from members currently overproducing versus their targets, another 400,000 b/d could be added to the market, according to Reuters news agency.

“Equally, the scope and scale of tariffs remains unclear, and with trade negotiations continuing apace, it is still too early to assess the impact on the market outlook,” it warned.

The agency still sees oil demand growth just over 1 mb/d, up from 830,000 b/d in 2024, to reach 103.9 mb/d.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day or more in 2025 from Asia, especially China, which is a decrease of 70,000 barrels per day compared to the previous estimate, the report added.

Source: Morteza Ahmadi Al Hashem