AI-Enhanced Long-Range ‘FPV’ Drones Signal Escalation in Russia’s Aerial War on Ukraine
Russia is resorting to sending attack drone swarms, using as many as 300 at a time, in an attempt to swamp Ukraine’s diminishing air defense assets and as a cost-effective alternative to hugely expensive ballistic and cruise missiles, according to the military issues Defense Express website.
However, as well as sending huge numbers of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) there is growing evidence of Russian technological enhancements to its drones, including the use of larger warheads and even jet engines. The latest innovation is what can only be called a first-person view (FPV) version.
Images published on social media by the influential technology blogger Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, show the components of the first confirmed use of these drones, the development of which had long been suspected.
Russia’s long-range drones had been found containing cameras before, but these were probably used as a navigation aid for terrain matching against pre-loaded geographical images to try and overcome Ukrainian GPS/GLONASS satnav jamming.
The UAV discovered following Russia’s latest mass aerial attack contains a high-resolution camera linked to a radio control and communications system along with what is thought to be an artificial intelligence (AI) module.
Beskrestnov assessed that the comms system would allow the drone to be directly controlled by an operator at a range of around 150 kilometers (95 miles) – a distance that could be increased using aerial or ground based “repeater” stations.
Commentators argue that the drone swarms being sent by Russia would consist of a combination of mainly “dumb” attack and decoy drones which would mask a few FPV drones – which would be controllable and targeted on valuable military or infrastructure targets.
They suggest that while a ballistic or cruise missile would carry a warhead containing 300-500 kilograms (660-1,100 pounds) they are extremely costly. Figures published by Forbes in January said these could range from $15 million for a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aero-ballistic missile and $13 million for the Kh-101 cruise missile to $3 million for the 9K720 Iskander short-range ballistic missile.
This compares with an estimated cost of the Shahed / Geran 2 of less than $50,000 and warheads containing 50-90 kilograms (110-200 pounds) of high explosive, with decoys costing much less. It is also noticeable that in the latest attacks, Russia has directed groups consisting of several dozen drones sent in consecutive waves against one target.
The argument is that if Russia fires a mixed swarm of 300 drones at a cost of less than $10 million and even if Ukraine brings down 90% of these using air defense and electronic warfare systems at least 30 will get through to their target.
Currently, Ukraine’s increasingly overstretched air defense assets, particularly outside of the major cities such as Kyiv and Lviv, are having success rates much lower than that. The aim, as Beskrestnov contends, underlines Russia’s intention to “destroy” Ukraine and is placing its “bet” on drones rather than missiles to achieve that aim – with recent reports that North Korea is now involved in Shahed production suggesting that the effort will be bolstered.
Source: Steve Brown