Trump’s Gulf tour: What to expect — $1 trillion deals, Gulf summit and a ‘Persian Gulf’ name change
Dubai: US President Donald Trump has embarked on a three-day visit to the Gulf, his first official foreign trip since retaking office in January. .The high-stakes tour kicks off in Saudi Arabia, followed by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with significant economic and geopolitical objectives on the table..What should Gulf economies do to absorb Trump”s policies? .This marks Trump’s second overseas visit since returning to the White House, following his attendance at Pope Francis’s funeral in Rome last month..Riyadh first: Breaking tradition again.Trump arrives in Riyadh on Tuesday, continuing a tradition from his first term, when he chose Saudi Arabia as his first international destination, breaking with the longstanding tradition of visiting the UK, Canada or Mexico..Attack on oil tankers in Gulf of Oman: Trump pins tanker attacks on Iran, dismisses shipping lane threat.He is set to attend a Gulf summit in Riyadh on Wednesday, visit Qatar later that day, and conclude his tour in the UAE on Thursday.Trump won’t be able to avoid diplomacy on Gaza or Iran: The Gulf countries hosting him are also interested in easing the regional tensions that emanate from these two places.“Trump can easily score a win by reassuring them of America’s strategic commitment to the region, demonstrating consistent messaging and generally rising above the fray,” analysts Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote Friday..$1 trillion deals: Trump’s economic focus.One of the primary objectives of Trump’s visit is securing major economic deals, including a $1 trillion Saudi investment in US industries — a notable expansion of the $600 billion pledge made by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier this year..Yemen truce deal is only between US and Al Houthis, says government.The push for such deals comes as the US faces declining economic growth, marking its first drop in output in three years..Security and stability: Gulf states’ priorities.Regional leaders are eager for Trump to reassure them about US security commitments. .US calls for a coalition to protect Gulf waters.“Security, security and security” is what Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states seek most from Trump’s visit, said Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on the politics and economics of Saudi Arabia..“Gulf States are looking for reassurance of the US security commitment to the Gulf’s stability,” Shihabi told CNN. “Trump has many priorities and has been known to lose interest quickly … and they want to keep him engaged.”.Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia came close to finalising a landmark defence and trade pact – but the deal stalled over Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Israel commit to a path toward Palestinian statehood..Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Trump is likely to move ahead with major deals regardless of normalisation, which he said is “dead.”.Saudi top diplomat in US to prepare for Trump visit.Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said the president wants to expand the Abraham Accords, under which the UAE and Bahrain recognised Israel during Trump’s first term, to include Saudi Arabia..Talks were reportedly under way on Saudi Arabia joining the accords, but after Israel began its war on Gaza in October 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman paused those discussions..‘Persian Gulf’… or Arabian Gulf?.In a symbolic shift, Trump has stated he may decide during his trip how the US refers to the body of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. .Currently known as the “Persian Gulf” in US circles, Trump may opt for the terms “Arabian Gulf” or “Gulf of Arabia” instead, sparking interest in the region over this diplomatic decision..UAE: AI, tech, and economic diversification.In the UAE, Trump is to meet President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to discuss investment opportunities in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, energy and manufacturing..In March, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over 10 years focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing and energy. Its existing US investments already total $1 trillion, according to the UAE embassy in Washington..“The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a significant contributor in AI and advanced technology,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, told CNN. .“The commitment to invest $1.4 trillion… aligns with the UAE’s goal to diversify its economy away from its over reliance on hydrocarbons to ensure prosperity for the country in the future.”.Qatar: Military ties and Syria sanctions.In Qatar, where the US maintains its largest military base in the region, Trump is expected to meet with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to discuss military cooperation and regional security..Given Qatar’s close relationship with Syria’s leadership, there may also be discussions about easing sanctions on Syria..Why not Israel?.Israel is absent from Trump’s itinerary, a notable omission amid rising tensions in Gaza. Sources suggest Israel had hoped for a visit during the trip, but Trump dismissed the possibility, stating, “We will be doing it at some point, but not for this trip.”.A US official told Axios that “nothing good can come out of a visit to Israel at the moment,” as the conflict in Gaza intensifies..What’s at stake.Trump’s Gulf tour, focused on economic partnerships, regional security, and geopolitical alignment, is shaping up to be a critical moment for US influence in the region. His actions could set the stage for future diplomatic breakthroughs, including potential shifts in Saudi-Israel relations and a redefined US-Gulf relationship.
Source: Gulf News Report