Azeri and Armenian Leaders Meet: Is Peace in South Caucasus Still Possible?
In a surprise diplomatic maneuver, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met on July 10 for direct one-on-one talks in Abu Dhabi, amid growing concerns over stalled peace negotiations between the two South Caucasus rivals.
The meeting was held behind closed doors, without mediators from Russia, the EU, or the US. According to regional analysts, the choice of venue signals a quiet shift away from traditional formats and a search for new frameworks as Western-led diplomacy struggles to produce results.
The United Arab Emirates once again offered a neutral diplomatic platform for high-stakes dialogue. Known for its pragmatic foreign policy and growing global mediation role, the UAE has increasingly hosted backchannel negotiations on complex international issues. In this case, it provided a discreet space for two rival South Caucasus leaders to talk – perhaps more frankly than they would in Western or Russian-brokered formats.
The context: deep tensions, shifting realities
The meeting comes at a time of great uncertainty in the South Caucasus. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and the subsequent 2023 Azerbaijani military operation, which led to the de facto displacement of the region’s Armenian population, have fundamentally reshaped the geopolitical map.
Armenia is undergoing internal political turbulence, while Azerbaijan is asserting itself as a regional power – both militarily and economically. President Aliyev is promoting Azerbaijan as a transport and energy hub, especially toward Europe and Central Asia, while Armenia seeks new security and trade partners amid its declining dependence on Russia.
What was discussed?
While the content of the Abu Dhabi talks remains undisclosed, experts believe that the following key issues were likely addressed:
Terms and timelines of a bilateral peace agreement Border delimitation and demarcation The fate of transport corridors and future infrastructure Security guarantees and regional military de-escalation Influence of third powers (Russia, Turkey, the EU, Iran)
This meeting is especially notable because it was held without the involvement of traditional mediators such as Russia or the OSCE Minsk Group. This may signal that both sides are exploring alternative diplomatic avenues amid growing dissatisfaction with Russia’s mediation, especially from the Armenian side.
A signal of hope or a symbolic gesture?
The Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in Abu Dhabi is a diplomatic signal worth watching, even if it does not yet mark a turning point. The very fact that dialogue continues – directly, without intermediaries – suggests that neither side has completely abandoned the idea of peace.
But without sustained political will, public support, and credible guarantees, words may not be enough.
Still, where there is dialogue, there is a possibility – and in this region, even possibility is rare.
Source: Mikheil Khachidze