ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 31, 2024
Russian forces gained 4,168 square kilometers, largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties in 2024.
The Russian military command largely prioritized efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast in 2024 but failed to accomplish these goals.
Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove – in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people.
Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk.
Ukrainian forces have yet to stop Russian forces from advancing in their priority sectors, however, and Western aid remains critical to Ukraine’s ability to stabilize the frontline in 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland” during his New Years’ address on December 31 – signaling the Kremlin’s continued efforts to militarize Russian society and maintain regime stability by appeasing the growing Russian veteran community.
Ukrainian naval drones reportedly downed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near occupied Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea, reportedly marking the first time that a naval drone has shot down an air target.
Ukrainian forces struck the Yarsevskaya oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and a building used by the Russian military in Lgov, Kursk Oblast on December 30 and 31.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
The Russian government will deprive prisoners who volunteer to fight in Ukraine of the one-time enlistment bonus starting January 1, 2025, marking another instance of Russia trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of war.
Source: ISW
Russia’s 111-Drone New Year Attack Hits Ukraine, Causing Fires and Injuries in Kyiv
Russia attacked Ukraine with 111 drones from four directions on Wednesday, Jan. 1, causing damage and casualties in Kyiv, Ukrainian officials reported.
“Early in the morning of January 1, 2025, the enemy attacked with 111 attack UAVs of the ‘Shahed’ type and drones of other types from the directions of Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Crimea,” the Air Force of Ukraine said on Telegram.
According to the report, as of 09:30 a.m., 63 attack UAVs were shot down. Due to active counteraction by the Defense Forces, 46 Russian drone simulators were destroyed in their locations, while two drones flew back to Russia and Belarus.
Explosions were reported in Kyiv around 7:00 a.m., with air defense systems operating in the Kyiv region. Six people were injured in the Pechersky district, as reported by the city’s mayor, Vitaliy Klitschko, via Telegram.
Initially, three injuries were confirmed, but by 9:30 a.m., the number had risen to six. Two individuals were hospitalized, while four, including a pregnant woman, were treated on-site by medical personnel.
The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reported significant damage in the Pechersky district. A six-story residential building was partially destroyed, with damage spanning from the 6th to the 4th floors and subsequent fires in apartments on the 4th and 5th floors. The fire was localized to an area of 70 square meters, and residents were evacuated.
A fire broke out on the roof of a non-residential building in the Pechersky district, covering an area of 80 square meters. Windows and doors on a school campus were also damaged. Authorities are assessing the extent of the damage and confirming casualty information.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported a fire on the roof of one of its buildings in the Pechersky district, caused by falling UAV fragments. There were no casualties, but windows on the upper floors were damaged. Despite the incident, all systems and services of the National Bank are operating as normal.
In the Svyatoshynsky district, debris fell on a non-residential area, damaging two garages, six cars, and a tram track. Authorities are still determining the extent of the damage and whether there were any casualties.
The Air Force reported that air defense systems were also active in the Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytsky, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv regions. The attack was countered using aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Prior to this, Russia launched drones and missiles at Kyiv on the morning of Dec. 31, causing property damage but no reported injuries at the time. Kyiv Post correspondents in Kyiv reported hearing explosions around 8:00 a.m., likely due to air defense activity.
Source: Kyiv Post
‘Shoot All the Locals’ – Russian Officer Orders Civilian Executions in Luhansk Region
Russian servicemen are instructing their soldiers positioned closer to the frontline to shoot and torture the local population, according to an investigation by the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU).
Ukrainian forces found the phone of one of the Russian soldiers, who filmed his comrade, Oleg Igorevych Rudakov (“Rudik”), giving criminal orders to “clean up” residents.
“Who hears me, order: clean up the residents, cleanse, cleanse, cleanse,” says an intercepted conversation.
Rudakov attempted to reach out to a soldier with the call sign “Lawyer,” who was stationed closer to the frontline. Therefore, an order was given to shoot at local cars, kill civilians, and torture them.
“Shoot all the local cars, f*ck, I’d rather just take them all down… Tie up all the locals, f*ck… I don’t know how to tie them – throw them all in the basement,” Rudakov sentences the residents of Nevske, Luhansk region.
The video’s author filmed one of the days when the Russian troops entered the settlement of Nevske in the Luhansk region. In the footage, the Russians acknowledge that the command had recognized the occupation of Nevske earlier than it happened.
Furthermore, the 3rd Assault Brigade intercepted radio conversations from Rudakov’s group as they entered Nevske, during which they issued the order to “cleanse,” meaning to eliminate the residents of the settlement.
According to the investigation, Rudakov, who gave these orders, had been repeatedly held accountable for crimes in the past. The soldiers of the 3rd Assault Brigade contacted his father, who said that his son hadn’t been in touch for three months since his deployment to a new area in Ukraine. The military unit where Rudakov was enlisted reported that he had been missing since October 2024.
Ukrainian forces also obtained radio transmission recordings from “Rudik’s” group, which indicated the brutal and inhumane treatment of Russian soldiers by their army.
The brigade added that the materials from the investigation could serve as evidence in international courts reviewing war crimes committed by Russian servicemen on Ukrainian soil.
Last November, the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office reported that Russian forces had once again violated international humanitarian law, killing two civilians in Toretsk, the Donetsk region, with another local was injured.
According to the investigation, on the evening of Nov. 21, 2024, Russian soldiers entered one of the apartments in a residential area of the city, where three civilians were present.
“The occupiers deliberately opened fire on them with automatic weapons, resulting in two local women being killed on the spot. A man nearby was injured with fractures to his shoulder and collarbone,” the prosecutor’s report read.
Kyiv Post has previously reposted intercepted conversations that may violate Kremlin operational security and reveal the morale of Russian soldiers, their families, and ordinary citizens. Examples of the things Ukrainian eavesdroppers have heard can be found here
Source: Kateryna Zakharchenko
Ukraine Ends Russian Gas Transit to Europe in ‘Historic Event’ Amid War
Russia’s gas transit to Europe via Ukraine stopped on Wednesday, Moscow and Kyiv said, ending a decades-long arrangement and marking the latest casualty of the war between the neighbours.
Russian gas has been supplied to Europe via pipelines crossing Ukraine since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991 in an arrangement that earned revenues for Moscow from the gas and for Kyiv from the transit fees.
The latest transit contract expired on Wednesday, with Ukraine opting not to extend the deal following Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Kyiv hailed the end of Russian gas transit as a “historic event,” and said it would deal a blow to Russia’s finances and its war machine.
But Moscow casts it as Ukraine shooting itself in the foot and frustrating its partners in eastern Europe that rely on Russian supplies.
Slovakia, one of those countries, has slammed the move, but it has been welcomed by others inside the EU, including Poland.
Russian gas accounted for less than 10 percent of the European Union’s gas imports in 2023 — down from more than 40 percent before the war.
But some of the bloc’s eastern members are still heavily reliant on Russian imports.
– ‘Historic event’ –
“We have stopped the transit of Russian gas,” Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said in a statement on Wednesday, calling it “a historical event.”
“Russia is losing its markets, it will suffer financial losses,” he added.
Russia’s Gazprom energy giant said in a separate statement that “Russian gas has not been supplied for transit via Ukraine since 8:00 am (0500 GMT)”.
It said it had lost the “technical and legal right” to ship its gas across Ukraine to Europe.
European natural gas prices climbed above 50 euros ($51.78) per megawatt hour for the first time in over a year on Tuesday as buyers in Eastern Europe braced for the halt in supplies.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico blasted the move on Wednesday, warning it would be Europe that pays the price.
“Halting gas transit via Ukraine will have a drastic impact on us all in the EU but not on the Russian Federation,” Fico said in a video message on Facebook.
Fico has pushed EU and NATO member Slovakia closer to the Kremlin since returning to power in 2023.
Poland, which does not import Russian gas and is one of Kyiv’s most vocal backers, welcomed the move.
Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said it marked “a new victory after NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden,” in a post on X.
Hungary is set to be largely unaffected by the move, as it receives most of its Russian gas via the Black Sea pipeline, an alternative route that bypasses Ukraine by running via Turkey and up through the Balkans.
Brussels has downplayed the impact the loss of Russian gas supply will have on the 27-member bloc.
“The Commission has been working for more than a year specifically on preparing for a scenario without Russian gas transiting via Ukraine,” it told AFP on Tuesday.
Kyiv has railed against countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas amid the invasion, accusing them of funding Russia’s invasion.
Energy revenues are crucial to Russia’s government finances.
Facing Western sanctions and pressure to cut purchases, Moscow has reorientated its lucrative exports away from the West towards Asia.
In a separate dispute over payments, Gazprom also said it would halt gas supplies to Moldova on Wednesday and Chisinau has introduced a state of emergency over possible power supplies.
Russia supplies Moldova with gas piped to the breakaway region of Transnistria, backed by Russia.
The country gets most of its electricity from a power station based in Transnistria that uses Russian gas.
Source: AFP
Ukrainian Marines Crush Russian Assault, Destroy Armored Vehicles and Infantry
Ukrainian Marines have successfully repelled a Russian assault on their positions, destroying three armored vehicles and inflicting losses on Russian infantry, according to a report by the Ukrainian Naval Forces on Facebook.
“We are repelling the assault of the Russian occupiers and destroying their equipment,” reads the caption accompanying a video released by the 37th Separate Marine Brigade.
Kyiv Post was unable to independently verify the time or location of the footage.
Intelligence reports tracked the movement of Russian armored vehicles toward Ukrainian Navy infantry positions, though the specific location of the clashes is not disclosed.
During the advance, one Russian armored vehicle was destroyed by a minefield, but the infantry managed to evacuate.
Another Russian vehicle was also hit by a mine and advanced toward the site of the first vehicle’s destruction. These armored vehicles, along with other equipment, became targets for Ukrainian FPV drone operators.
At the same time, Russian infantrymen were pursued by air bombers—multicopters carrying heavy bombs. The video shows several Russian soldiers lying on the ground after dropping ammunition.
The Ukrainian Navy reports that, as a result of the failed assault, the Russians lost an infantry unit, though the exact number of casualties is not specified.
“The occupiers didn’t even have time to fire a single shot before they were sent to meet their predecessors in hell,” the report reads.
Ukraine, grappling with a persistent personnel shortage within its forces, is intensifying its use of various types of drones on the battlefield.
On Dec. 31, 2024, Ukrainian special operators achieved a historic first by downing a manned aircraft using a long-range robotic boat off Crimea’s western coast during the early hours.
Night footage from an onboard camera captured a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone navigating through rough seas at high speed while under fire from at least two Russian Mi-8 helicopters circling overhead.
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) released the combat footage, revealing that the engagement took place near Cape Tarkhankut, located at the westernmost point of Russian-occupied Crimea. Another drone can be seen evading Russian machine gun fire amid splashes from near-miss shots.
According to HUR, the drones fired multiple R-73 SeeDragon missiles – a Soviet-era air-to-air missile modified by Ukraine for maritime targets – successfully downing one Mi-8 helicopter and damaging a second, which then retreated. HUR later shared a recording allegedly from one of the Russian pilots, confirming that they were hit by one of the sea-launched anti-aircraft missiles.
Source: Kyiv Post
Poland’s President Duda: War in Ukraine ‘Must End in Just Peace’
In a New Year’s address delivered on Tuesday evening, Duda, whose presidential term ends on August 6, 2025, said that the security of Poland must remain the top priority for his successor.
He said: “The coming year 2025 is the year of presidential elections. It is us, Poles, who must decide who we will entrust with the highest office in the country.
“We live in turbulent times, in which we have learned that peace and freedom are not given once and for all, they must be strived for every day.
“That is why the security of our homeland must be the most important issue for the future president – regardless of who we entrust this office to.”
Duda gave his assurance that for him, the security of Poles has always been the highest priority, transcending any political divisions.
“This is how I acted and will continue to act until the last day of my presidency – both in Poland and representing our country in the international arena,” he said.
Addressing the ongoing war in Ukraine, now approaching its third year, Duda highlighted its significance for Poland, saying: “Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is the war taking place across our eastern border that is absolutely critical for our [Polish] security.”
He stressed that the conflict in Ukraine must not end with a Russian victory, saying: “It must end with a just peace, which will prevent the outbreak of another, perhaps even greater conflict in the future.”
Pillars of Polish security
Duda pointed out that Polish security is based on two pillars: a strong army and international alliances, adding that he is glad that NATO member states are increasing defense spending.
He said that the priority of the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union, which begins on January 1, should be to strengthen cooperation between the EU and the United States, adding: “There is no secure Europe without the involvement of the United States, both militarily and economically.”
Duda said: “Throughout my presidency, I have consistently sought to strengthen strategic Polish-American relations.
“Today I am proud that they are stronger than ever, but I am convinced that in the coming months they can gain an even deeper dimension.
See the original here.
Source: Tvp World