ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2025
The United States paused weapons supplies to Ukraine, including critical air defense interceptors, artillery shells, missiles, and rockets.
The decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine will likely force Ukrainian forces to continue to husband materiel, although the exact timing of the planned deliveries that the United States paused remains unclear at this time.
The suspension of US aid to Ukraine will likely accelerate Russian gains on the battlefield, as previous US aid suspensions have in the past.
The suspension of US aid to Ukraine will reinforce Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win the war of attrition by making slow, creeping advances and outlasting Western support for Ukraine.
Kremlin officials are responding to the US military aid suspension by publicly flouting Putin’s theory of military victory as successful — in direct opposition to US President Donald Trump’s stated goal of bringing Russia to the negotiating table and achieving a lasting and just peace.
The Kremlin is also using the US aid suspension as a basis to continue rhetorical attacks against European defensive efforts that are in line with Trump’s initiative for Europe to shoulder more of the burden for collective defense.
The US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine will particularly degrade Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russia’s enhanced long-range missile and drone strike capabilities that have inflicted significant civilian casualties — in sharp contrast to President Trump’s stated objective of stopping civilian casualties in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.
Source: ISW