Precarious Polish Politics and the Ukrainian Cause
Poland is a deeply divided country. That’s no secret. A good example of this is the former Polish President and Solidarity legend Lech Wałęsa, who has recently said he isn’t going to take part in the swearing-in ceremony of the President-Elect Karol Nawrocki. One of the most famous Poles alive has called the President-Elect a disgrace for Poland. Lech Wałęsa says that he is going to keep voicing his opinion about Karol Nawrocki around the world. Whether his words will have any impact on foreign officials remains to be seen. One wonders if the Polish icon criticizing Karol Nawrocki so openly is a sound strategy for Poland.
Polish political scene is a movie script
While politics around the world is fraught with intrigue and danger, it’s hard to find a country with a more unpredictable political scene than Poland. Ukrainian officials would be wise to tread carefully in this chaotic and precarious Polish political landscape.
Take the extremely popular urban legend of seryjny samobójca (serial suicider). An individual or a group of operatives targeting insiders with national-security-level knowledge: academics, journalists, politicians, businessmen, and so on. The murders are allegedly staged as suicides, hence the name – serial suicider. Poles even say when there’s a suspicious death of a Pole from social elite circles: “The serial suicider got to him.”
Coming up with a single strategy to deal with Poland is a mistake. Several strategies are needed.
Donald Tusk – from hero to villain
Let’s look at Polish politics through the eyes of Civic Coalition voters. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister and leader of the Civic Coalition, had a chance to show true leadership. Eleven million voters trusted the Polish prime minister a year and a half ago to hold Law and Justice accountable for its actions when Law and Justice was in power for eight years (2015-23).
The Polish Prime Minister has failed miserably. To make matters worse, he has accepted the presidential election win of Karol Nawrocki, acknowledging the voting irregularities but saying these irregularities don’t change the fact that Karol Nawrocki has won the presidential elections.
Such statements have angered and disappointed the Civic Coalition voters to the point of never trusting Donald Tusk again. Indeed, to the point of not even voting again.
The Civic Coalition lacks a coherent strategy. Being against Law and Justice at every turn isn’t enough.
What does it all mean? Fading into obscurity is what most likely awaits the Civic Coalition now.
Law and Justice strategists are much better at getting through to potential voters. Karol Nawrocki, a man barely anyone knew months ago, will become the next President of Poland thanks to Law and Justice strategists. Law and Justice voters are given a clear purpose. They see themselves as patriots with common sense who work to secure Poland’s place in the world.
Law and Justice might enter into an alliance with Confederation, even though the leader of the Confederation, Sławomir Mentzen, denies such a scenario. Mentzen says that Law and Justice sees his party as an appetizer and Mentzen’s ambitions are much bigger than that. Whether one loves or hates Law and Justice, it is a potent political force and Ukraine is going to have to find a way to work with them, just as Polish political parties will have to grin and bear it.
Nationalist narratives are stronger than ever
The issue of Volhynia and exhumations is back to haunt the discussions between Polish and Ukrainian officials. Given that Karol Nawrocki has been the President of the Institute of National Remembrance since 23 July 2021, thorny historical issues between Ukraine and Poland are likely to be brought up a lot. A hardened stance on Ukraine is what millions of Poles who voted for Karol Nawrocki expect, with some demanding a tough stance.
Russia has put Karol Nawrocki on a wanted list in 2024 or earlier, According to Mediazona, likely due to the demolition of Soviet war memorials in Poland.
With Karol Nawrocki as the Polish President, it would seem relations with Russia will be as bad as they can possibly get, perhaps even non-existent, but there are those who believe that Karol Nawrocki intends to seek closer ties with Moscow. If that were to happen, then Polish-Ukrainian relations are obviously going to suffer. It’s in the interest of Ukrainian officials to ensure the Polish pivot toward Russia isn’t a drastic one, if there’s any pivot at all.
Anti-Ukrainian sentiment on the rise
Anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland is getting stronger. Case in point, Polish volunteers who fight in Ukraine are often called derogatory names by fellow Poles. Banderites, betrayers, cowards, crazies and suckers are some of the more polite insults one can read online in the comments sections. Sure, some of these commenters are Russian bots and troll accounts but definitely not all of them. That aside, millions of Poles continue to be fervent supporters of Ukraine.
Zapad 2025 looms large
We don’t know whether Russia isn’t planning a provocation or an incursion during Zapad 2025 exercises in September. If that were the case, Polish-Ukrainian relations will become even closer. Ukrainian drone expertise and military experience are going to be a valuable asset.
Poland the mercurial maiden
Coming up with a single strategy to deal with Poland is a mistake. Several strategies are needed because sometimes even Polish politicians don’t seem to know what they are doing and what their agenda actually is. When dealing with Polish politicians, Ukrainian officials must be ready for a proverbial rollercoaster ride. Then again, given the experiences of President Zelensky with President Trump, finding a way to interact with the Polish political class shouldn’t pose much of a challenge.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Source: Adam Borowski