Trump Bungling
Trump’s four-day swing through the Middle East reaped the rewards, but now his focus in the region must be to shut down Iran’s nuclear bomb program.
Iran resists and claims its technology is for peaceful purposes only.
But on May 29, Austria’s domestic intelligence service stated that Iran’s nuclear weapons development was “well advanced” and that Tehran has an arsenal of ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear warheads over long distances.
Then, on May 31, the United Nations watchdog reported a significant surge recently in the size of Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium. Tehran denies this, but despite the warning, Trump’s team presented a formal proposal to Iran on May 31. But so far, these talks have been pointless, wrote The Wall Street Journal: “Iran Takes Trump’s Negotiators for a Ride. The ayatollahs drag out the nuclear talks because they’re no longer scared of the American President.”
Sound familiar? The Iranian negotiations are like the Russian talks. Putin also isn’t afraid of Trump and strings him along as he commits war crimes. Neither negotiation has made much progress, but on June 4, they transected when Putin spoke to Trump following Ukraine’s daring drone attack and allegedly promised to help Trump succeed with his talks in Iran.
It was simply another cynical, slow-walk strategy by the dictator. Russia and Iran are not honorable nor interested in stopping their murder and mayhem. But Trump said the offer was interesting and may give access to his discussions with Tehran.
Both conflicts illustrate that in matters of foreign conflict, Trump is a major bungler. He’s partisan, timid, does not demand urgency, changes his mind, imposes few deadlines, and makes no threats. He’s essentially given up on resolving the Ukrainian impasse and blames Ukraine, the victim, not Putin, the predator.
As for Iran’s crazed ayatollahs, he’s lapsed into delusional optimism and said recently, “I think we have a chance of making a deal with Iran. They don’t want to be blown up. They would rather make a deal, and I think that could happen in the not-too-distant future.”
Fortunately, Trump has leverage concerning his Iran negotiations because Israel chomps on the bit to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and will if the US gives permission…or if Trump completely botches the talks. But the knock-on effects of an attack by Israel on Iran will turn the entire region into a cauldron of killing and instability.
The fact is that Ukraine, Israel, and others cannot count on Trumpian “miracles.”
Ukraine escalates in the face of failed attempts to force Putin into a ceasefire. Tel-Aviv continues to pummel Tehran’s terrorist proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Even Turkey helped remove Iran’s ally, Syria’s “butcher” Bashar al-Assad of Syria.
Such setbacks for Tehran have exacerbated internal troubles and may lead to an all-out economic crisis and regime change. This is not impossible. In 2022, mass protests by females brought Iran to a standstill and followed the murder of a young woman by police who had been arrested for not wearing a hijab. Some reforms have been implemented, but unrest persists. Iran’s currency is among the weakest in the world, with inflation exceeding 30%, high unemployment, and imported goods and services are unaffordable.
However, it’s perplexing that, given the fact that Iran is on the “ropes” economically, as is Russia, Trump’s negotiations go nowhere.
Significant American sanctions have not been imposed on either enemy and, in Russia’s case, the play-by-play in negotiations concerning Ukraine is well-documented and embarrassing to Washington: Russia stretches out deadlines and then ignores them, using the talks as a cover as it escalates its war to kill civilians and grab more Ukrainian territory rather than agree to a ceasefire.
Putin commits war crimes daily by targeting civilians without condemnation by Washington.
Then, on June 4, Putin told Trump that he was upset at Ukraine’s June 1 drone triumph and would hit back. He played Trump again by changing the subject and promising to sort out the Iran negotiations on behalf of the Americans – a distraction and promise he has no intention of keeping.
To deal with all these negotiations, Trump appoints a friend, billionaire, and amateur – Steve Witkoff – who is inexperienced, at sea, bogged down, and whipsawed by Trump’s erratic decision-making.
Concerning Iran, Witkoff agreed at one point to allow low-level uranium enrichment in Iran, then suddenly announced all enrichment must stop. This same pattern plagues discussions with Putin.
America’s latest offer to Tehran remains unknown, but time is running out as its technologists and military march toward building atomic bombs. This month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Iran possesses over 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity – close to the 90% purity required for weapons-grade uranium, reported the BBC.
“This is well above the level of purity sufficient for civilian nuclear power and research purposes. It is enough for about 10 nuclear weapons if further refined, making Iran the only non-nuclear-armed state producing uranium at this level.”
Trump threatens to let Israel bomb Iran if a deal is not signed soon, but such warnings fall on deaf ears given his past climb-downs. And his Middle East strategy has become hopelessly complicated. He relies on ally Saudi Arabia as a backchannel to Moscow and tries to coerce the rich Gulf states to distance themselves from China.
He also attempts to prevent them from developing or buying nukes and, to do so, promises to undertake a more comprehensive realignment of security cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others.
At their urging, he has also recognized Syria’s new leadership and promised to help rebuild the country. Militarily, America now props up the wealthy and impoverished Arab nations, and Trump seeks reimbursement for America.
He bluntly explained why he took the trip: “I said I’ll go if you pay $1 trillion to American companies – meaning the purchase over a four-year period of $1 trillion – and they’ve agreed to do that.”
Trump’s wheeling and dealing may be cunning, but it gets in the way of solutions. He desperately hopes to strike a “grand bargain” with Russia to create a massive bilateral trading relationship in the future.
But this will never happen because Putin’s aim is not economic but imperial. And the Kremlin’s loyalty is to Iran, China, and North Korea, not to world peace or Donald Trump. The result of Trump’s magical thinking is that he foot-drags and fawns over Putin, who has stultified peace talks and prolonged the slaughter of Ukrainians.
Likewise, Trump’s pursuit of a minerals deal in Ukraine became another mercenary distraction, prolonging discussions for weeks. It was helpful, if only because the deal tethers the US to Ukraine’s future, but the killing continues.
Trump is a businessman who seeks a win-win “deal.” However, in wars involving evil empires, there is no room for compromises or middle ground. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and reconstitute the Soviet Union. The Ayatollah’s motto is “Death for Israel” and “Death for America.”
To chase a mutually beneficial deal with such players is pointless. This is why the Ukraine-Russia peace initiative by Trump has been a complete failure, as have the Iran talks. This is why Ukraine launched a spectacular attack on June 1, because negotiations have failed. And this is why Israel will take action soon if a definitive deal with Iran fails to be signed.
Trump must seek to defeat, not win-win. Ukraine must be massively armed against Russia. The United States must massively sanction Russia and Iran. If not, both wars will worsen. As former foreign advisor John Bolton predicted recently: “I think we’re really at a very important point here in Iran, whether Trump is going to try and continue these negotiations, which I think are going to be completely fruitless, or whether Israel is going to do what it has to do to protect its very existence.”
Reprinted from [email protected] – Diane Francis on America and the World.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Source: Diane Francis