Trump”s tariff bombshell: Will Europe fight back?
The warning shots have been fired. US President Donald Trump, in his signature style, has declared that tariffs on the European Union are “definitely happening” and will be imposed “pretty soon.” Coming off the back of his trade war with China, and fresh from tightening the screws on Mexico and Canada, the US president has now set his sights on Europe..French President Emmanuel Macron wasted no time in responding. “If we were attacked on trade, Europe as an enduring power would have to make itself respected and to respond,” he said, urging unity among the bloc’s 27 members. Macron is right to be worried. The EU exported goods worth $576.3 billion to the US last year, while American exports to Europe stood at $367.6 billion. That’s a deficit Trump sees as an imbalance — one that, in his view, needs correcting..Tariff war averted (for now): “Good call” between Trudeau, Trump.Will EU bow to pressure?So, will Trump actually pull the trigger on EU tariffs, or is this another one of his negotiating tactics, designed to extract concessions and political leverage? If history is any guide, his first term saw a raft of protectionist measures, from steel and aluminium duties to the all-out trade war with China. The logic then was clear: tariffs were a weapon to force better trade deals. The question now is whether the EU will bow to pressure or push back harder than before..Trump’s economic worldview has never been subtle. He believes the US has been taken advantage of in trade for decades, particularly by allies. In his mind, tariffs are not just a means to an end — they are the end. “The European Union has abused the United States for years, and they can’t do that,” he said recently. This sentiment plays well to his base, particularly in manufacturing-heavy states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where voters feel global trade agreements have left them behind..But while his past tariffs were largely aimed at China, the EU presents a different kind of challenge. The US and Europe are deeply intertwined, not just in trade but in defence, diplomacy, and investment.Slapping tariffs on European cars, farm products, or industrial goods won’t just provoke economic retaliation — it could strain transatlantic ties at a time when the West is already grappling with multiple crises, from the war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East..Unlike China, which retaliated against US tariffs with its own sweeping measures, Europe has typically been more restrained. But patience may be running out. Macron’s comments reflect a growing sense within the EU that it cannot afford to be passive. “Recent declarations from the US are pushing Europe to be stronger and more united,” he said..China hits back at US with levies as Trump tariffs come in force.Keeping Europe guessingThe EU has tools at its disposal. It could hit back with counter-tariffs targeting key American industries. It could also lean on its vast regulatory power, making life difficult for US tech giants — something Brussels has already been doing with its digital regulations. The question is whether European leaders have the political will to escalate the situation..If tariffs do come, both sides will lose. Higher duties will raise costs for consumers and businesses, disrupt supply chains, and slow economic growth. The auto sector, for instance, would be hit hard, with German manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes facing higher costs on cars exported to the US, while American automakers could struggle with retaliatory European tariffs..Moreover, a trade war would weaken the Western alliance at a moment when unity is crucial. The idea of waging an economic battle while trying to maintain military and strategic cooperation is a contradiction that serves no one..Ultimately, Trump’s approach to trade is not about economics alone — it’s about power. He sees trade deficits not as a function of complex global supply chains but as evidence that America is being “ripped off.” That view has led to policy shifts, dramatic tariff announcements, and sudden reversals. Europe, for its part, has learnt not to take Trump’s threats lightly. But it has also learnt that his positions can change..For now, Trump is keeping Europe guessing. But if the past is any indication, his threats may soon turn into action. And when they do, the EU will have a choice: absorb the blow, or strike back. Either way, the next chapter of transatlantic trade relations is about to get a lot more turbulent..Ahmad Nazir is a UAE based freelance writer, with a degree in education from the Université de Montpellier in Southern France
Source: Ahmad Nazir